We expect continued volatility into the end of 2022 and a possible global recession in 2023. However, we anticipate that interest rates are potentially already at or near their peak levels for this cycle. As shown in the chart below, retail investor sentiment is at levels last seen in the GFC, yet their portfolio allocation to shares remains historically high. This correction is unusual from others, given retail investors now have access to quality market information via Google, YouTube, and trading platforms like Robinhood in the US or Sharesies & Hatch closer to home.

Nothing in this publication is, or should be taken as, an offer, invitation or recommendation to buy, sell or retain any investment in or make any deposit with any person. Before making any investment, insurance or other financial decisions, you should consult a professional financial adviser. When calculating US inflation numbers, “shelter” costs make up around 33% of the inflation calculations weighting. As shown in the table below, shelter costs are now starting to move a lot higher, with single home rents up over 12.50%.

Why investors should be concerned about a dam bursting in Brazil?

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The message received by the market from these changes is that the government no longer wishes to support people who pursue a property investment business. It is fair to say that global economies are getting unprecedented levels of support. How this plays out over the coming 5-years is going to be interesting. However, with this level of support and the option to extend or continue it, we can certainly expect economies to recover. Only a fool would try to forecast when a share market bubble will pop, but as valuations climb higher, the chance of further upside gains declines, and the chance of higher downside losses increases.

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China’s growth pulled the world’s economies out of recession after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. They achieved this via internal infrastructure projects and the global Belt and Road initiatives. This development was largely funded via debt and has led to China’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding the US and Eurozone. We can expect US YOY headline inflation to increase over the next two months as the July and August 2022 rollout of the annual numbers. In July 2022, US monthly inflation was 0.0%; in August, it was 0.2%. According to Economist Steven Anastasiou, this will likely leave the US inflation range bound between 3% and 3.6% into the end of 2023.

• We recommend offshore online casinos offering no deposit free spins to New Zealand players, provided they’ve got recognised, industry-approved licences.
• For residential investment properties purchased before 29th of March, interest deductibility will remain but will reduce over the next four-years.
• Fed during the Covid lockdown in 2020 had pushed the price of bonds to unsustainable levels.
• In March, a fund manager’s biggest fear was understandably the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, but in April, their biggest concern has changed to the fear of a global recession.

Unfortunately, non-tradable inflation eased only marginally, from 5.9% to 5.8% year-on-year, well above the RBNZ’s forecast of 5.3%. Within non-tradable inflation, services inflation actually re-accelerated, up from 4.7% to 5.3% year-on-year. It is not only in the US inflation that is surprising to the upside. As shown below, several countries have seen this change – including New Zealand, where non-tradable (local) inflation remains higher than was forecast. Verification can help ensure real people are writing the reviews you read on Trustpilot. Our platform does not control casino communications, but we take this seriously and encourage you to contact the operator’s support directly to enforce self-exclusion.

September Market Update

Retail investors have not capitulated to date, but there is already some serious blood on the street within their portfolios. If the correlation between these two lines holds, it suggests the S&P500 EPS will decline by c.5% into the end of 2023. The Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P500 is currently 19.8 times(X).

US inflation surprised to the upside…….again

This uncertainty has led to history’s most volatile period in the US two-year government bond pricing. The chart below shows the weekly change in the US two-year government bond yield. What is most interesting about this is that two-year bonds should have less volatility, as markets should be able to forecast that far in advance, with only a small margin for error. An example showing how unprecedented this level of volatility is can be seen when comparing the last twelve months’ variance in yield to the period in 2008, the Global Financial Crisis.

Most indicators suggest a recession, but the tailwind for US growth is improving with China’s re-opening from the Covid lockdown. Below is a table showing the same S&P500 forward earnings per share (dark blue line), which has slowed since it peaked Best casino sites New Zealand in late-2021. This indicator comprises a survey of US credit managers and the ISM Manufacturing PMI index. Below is the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation index.